Motor City Blues
Basketball Betting Lines
07/02/2009 -
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - I've always thought of sports as the ultimate form of
escapist entertainment.
And a whole lot of people need to "escape" right about now.
It was announced Thursday that the nation's employers cut a larger-than-
expected 467,000 jobs in June, and the unemployment rate climbed to a 26-year
high of 9.5 percent. All told, 14.7 million Americans were unemployed in June.
Perhaps no city has been hit harder than Detroit, where the economic recession
has left the Motor City with an astounding 22 percent unemployment rate, over
two times the national average.
It wasn't always like that. Once upon a time, moving to Detroit was like
winning the middle-class lottery. People with little or no real education were
able to get jobs in the auto industry and in turn garner nice pay, great
benefits and a solid pension. It was the very definition of the "American
Dream," for so many.
Increased competition from foreign companies, the unyielding demands of the
powerful unions and flat out mismanagement at the very top collapsed the
entire auto industry from within, leaving a crumbling city both politically
and fiscally.
Inasmuch, the people of Motown could use an "escape."
In recent years, the Pistons have been great at providing a few hours of
escapist entertainment. Six straight trips to the Eastern Conference finals
made late spring basketball a birthright for a generation of hoops fans...
Until last year.
Convinced his veteran-laden team was stale and couldn't get over the ultimate
hump, Pistons president Joe Dumars pushed the plunger and blew up his team.
The results were disastrous.
Joe D. jettisoned the underrated Flip Saunders for the untested and unproven
Michael Curry, and compounded that mistake with the ill-conceived Chauncey
Billups-Allen Iverson trade.
Curry's decision to bench veteran stalwart Rip Hamilton in favor of Iverson
was not well-received by his team. Gone was Detroit's legendary balance,
defensive prowess and chemistry, not to mention the run of six straight trips
to the East finals.
In his first year directing the perennial championship contenders, Curry led
the Pistons to just a 39-43 record, good for the No. 8 seed in the Eastern
Conference. Detroit was then quickly swept in the first round of the playoffs
by the top-seeded Cavaliers, who won each game by double digits.
Needless to say, this is a big summer for Dumars.
First, the Hall of Famer did an about-face Tuesday and fired Curry, just two
months after he had held a press conference to confirm that his embattled
coach would return to the Motor City in 2009-10.
Then the team - which did acquire plenty of cap space in the Iverson deal -
dove into free agency headfirst on Wednesday, reportedly agreeing to deals
with a pair of former UConn stars, sharp-shooting guard Ben Gordon, late of
the Chicago Bulls, and emerging forward Charlie Villanueva, formerly of the
Milwaukee Bucks.
Gordon, an offensive-minded two-guard just like Iverson, had been on the
Pistons' radar for quite some time and is a much better fit than the former
MVP.
"Ben agreed to come here knowing he would come off the bench," a source told
NBA.com. "That makes it completely different than Iverson coming here...Gordon
is choosing to come here and play the super sub role."
Villanueva, meanwhile, became available after Milwaukee inexplicably declined
to make him a qualifying offer on Monday.
Now, Detroit will feature a three-guard rotation of Rodney Stuckey, Hamilton
and Gordon, with Tayshaun Prince at small forward and Villanueva at power
forward.
The problem is the pivot, where battle-tested veterans Rasheed Wallace and
Antonio McDyess are both expected to move on, leaving the perpetually
underachieving Kwame Brown as the only current option.
Like the city they play in, the Pistons are still a long way away from their
glory days. But Dumars' dealings may have provided something far more
important than any championship trophy -- a welcome distraction for an
embattled fan base.
<< Thrashers sign Antropov
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Thrashers signed unrestricted free
agent forward Nik Antropov to a multi-year contract Thursday. Terms of the
deal were not disclosed, per team policy.
The 29-year-old compiled career-highs
<< Bremen's Schaaf confirms Naldo exit
Bremen, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Werder Bremen manager Thomas Schaaf has
confirmed that Brazilian defender Naldo will be allowed to leave the club this
summer.
The 26-year-old centre-half has been with the Bundesliga club for four s
<< Twins demote Henn, to recall Duensing
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Twins have assigned pitcher
Sean Henn outright to Triple-A Rochester and plan to recall left-hander Brian
Duensing prior to Friday's game with the Detroit Tigers.
Henn, who signed as a mi
<< Gudjohnsen expects to leave Barca
Barcelona, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Barcelona forward Eidur Gudjohnsen is
content to wait on a decision over where he will be playing his football next
season.
The 30-year-old is expected to exit the Camp Nou this summer, but his age
<< Longwood gives hoop's coach Gillian multi-year extension
Farmville, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Longwood University has extended the
contract of men's basketball head coach Mike Gillian. Financial terms were
not released but the extension covers multiple years.
The Lancers were 17-14 la
United loses out on Benzema >>
Manchester, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Manchester United's hopes of signing
Karim Benzema are over after the France striker agreed to a six-year contract
with Real Madrid.
Benzema, 21, was believed to have been earmarked by United
Wolfsburg's Veh backs Dzeko decision >>
Wolfsburg, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New Wolfsburg coach Armin Veh has backed
the decision to shun offers for star striker Edin Dzeko and keep him at the
club next season.
The 23-year-old Bosnia international had seemed set to join
NFL suspends Jets LB Pace for four games >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Jets linebacker Calvin Pace has been
suspended without pay for the first four games of the 2009 season for
violating the NFL's policy on performance enhancing substances, the league
announc
Atletico swoops for Juanito >>
Madrid, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Atletico Madrid has completed the signing of
central defender Juanito from relegated Real Betis.
The 32-year-old Spain international stopper has been with the Seville-based
club for more than a decad
Wolverhampton completes Milijas signing >>
Wolverhampton, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wolverhampton has completed the
signing of Nenad Milijas after being granted a work permit for the Serbia
midfielder.
Milijas, 26, agreed a four-year contract with the newly-promoted Prem
Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “
What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).
Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.
Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.
A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)
The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.
For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."
“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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